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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 242339
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
739 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through central Pennsylvania tonight and
early Tuesday. Building heights are expected across the Mid
Atlantic region during the second half of the week. A cold front
will likely push south across the region by early next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
All the earlier showers died off as they crested the upper
ridge. The storms off to the west are also weakening, but SPC
recent MCD suggests that the environment over WV may be headed
this way. We still have the ridge axis somewhere over us, likely
in the east or eastern PA judging from the radar mosaic
returns/movements. SPC mesoanalysis puts higher bouancy over
Bedford-Centre county than just to the west (Westmo/Indiana).
Interesting feature, which could spell an initial weakening, but
later development perhaps as the shortwave over WV moves up and
pushes the ridge farther to the east. RAP and HRRR do slide the
stuff in WV up overhead. This timing is very consistent to
previous thinking, and have only tweaked to get slightly finer
timing using the HRRR and RAP as basis.

Prev...
Regional radar loop shows some dying showers across my NERN
zones, while ne convection is beginning to pop over the SW
on the nose of the growing instability.

The HRRR shows this activity remaining scattered in coverage
through the afternoon, with the best chance for widespread rain
holding off until around or after sunset.

The cold front should be entering the CWA just after midnight,
and clearing the eastern zones just after sunrise Tuesday. This
should result in a cluster of showers and thunderstorms crossing
the forecast area between about 9PM and 5AM according to the
latest HREF. The time of day that the convection will be moving
through argues more for localized downpours than for severe
weather, but SPC has my SWRN zones in a slight risk, a gusty
storm cannot be ruled out as the remnants of OH convection
enters the region.

The potent upper level trough will be shearing out as it moves
through the forecast area. Forcing will still be respectable
however as inferred by model 500-300mb QVEC convergence fields.
Combined with PWATS 2-3SD above climo, it supports high POPs
across the entire region, but especially across the northwest.

Can`t rule out some localized flooding this evening across the
western counties, where combination of high PWATS and
instability will exist. However the latest HRRR has backed off
the QPF somewhat with highest amounts now generally in the 1-2"
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Showers should be exiting the eastern part of the forecast area
early Tuesday, as cold front pushes east. Surface ridging
building into the state should translate to fair weather for the
rest of the day over most of central Pa. However, cooling temps
aloft, combined with diurnal heating, could result in a few
afternoon sprinkles across the NW mountains.

With the upper trough lifting out, the post cold frontal airmass
will be drier but not significantly cooler. Highs will range
from the mid 70s NW to mid 80s SE, which will be a few deg
either side of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A summertime pattern will arrive right on schedule with above
average temperatures and humid/muggy conditions to close out the
month of June. A theme of drier weather is also expected through
most of the week with just an isolated shower or thunderstorm
possible. A digging upper trough over the Northeast US will
bring the most likely period of t-storms to the area over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will slide to the east today allowing a warm front
to approach from the Ohio Valley. The front will help kick off
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW with
convection spreading eastward later in the day and especially
this evening. Widespread VFR conditions will persist through the
day as clouds slowly thicken and lower.

A cold front swinging through tonight will bring more widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the flying area. Evening
impacts over the west may include gusty winds and small hail
with some of the stronger thunderstorms. Convection will become
more scattered as it moves into eastern half of CWA around and
shortly after midnight bringing local restrictions. MVFR
ceilings will impact the west early Tue morning but all sites
are expected to become VFR by mid morning.


.Outlook...

Wed...Scattered PM thunderstorms possible NW.

Thu...No sig wx.

Fri...Scattered PM thunderstorms possible NW.

Sat...Chance of mainly PM showers and T-storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/La Corte
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...La Corte

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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