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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 161145
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
645 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm system that brought the season`s first widespread
heavy snow will move off to our northeast today. Weak high
pressure will bring drier conditions to most areas through
Saturday. A cold front is likely to push southeast across the
state early Sunday, then high pressure will build over the
region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The season`s first major winter storm will continue to wind down
early today. It definitely overachieved with regards to snow as
the marginal warm air that we expected to play more of a role in
allowing sleet and freezing rain to keep amounts down proved
too marginal to bring the expected change-over until after heavy
snow amounts were observed.

Meso-anal shows a surface low just south of Islip Long Island as
of 6AM. Satellite shows the upper low rotating through
northeastern PA with a weak shortwave ridge building over PA
behind it. Radar has little left but scattered very light
returns, and remaining surface obs actually showing snow
indicate it is also very light and not accumulating.

In the wake of the departing storm we expect a blustery WSW
flow to develop. This will help maintain clouds and scattered
snow showers over the usual locations of the west and north, but
additional accumulating snow will be on the order of a dusting
to an inch in some spots. Downsloping flow should yield partly
to mostly sunny skies across the southeast half of the forecast
area.

Highs today will be on the chilly side ranging from the mid 30s
over the NW to lower 40s over the SE. While well below normal
for mid November, we shouldn`t have problems with a rapid
freeze up in areas that saw the wintry mix.

Strong subsidence behind the upper low will cause light winds
to kick up a bit towards dawn as stronger flow aloft mixes to
the surface. Bufkit soundings support gusts as high as 25kts
over the Laurels, perhaps high enough to cause a bit of
blowing/drifting in open areas.

The overnight will remain gusty with western and northern areas
being cloudy and snow-showery. Minor additional accums of an
inch or less are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will maintain the most clouds and the
highest chances for snow showers over the western and northern
higher elevations. Snow shower activity may be enhanced over the
NW later Saturday afternoon as a weak cold front drops south
through the eastern Gr Lakes. The W or WSW low level flow will
keep the best over-lake trajectories mainly north of the area.

Highs will be virtually identical to today with highs from the
mid 30s to lower 40s NW-SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A broad upper level long-wave trough will persist over eastern
half of the country through the medium range.

Models hint at a couple of chances for additional snowfall as
disturbances rotate through the fast upper flow. The first
looks like a weak Alberta Clipper Sunday into Sunday night.
These moisture starved systems most often favor nuisance
although fairly widespread snow amounts. At this time I have
light amounts confined over about the northern half of the CWA.

Another weak moisture starved cold front is advertised for
Tuesday with the best chances for some light snow mainly over
the far north.

Fair and chilly weather will set in behind the cold front and
continue through the holiday and the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z TAFS sent.

Storm system near the southeast coast of New Jersey will move
away for the area today.

Most areas will quickly have improving conditions, except
for the higher terrain areas like BFD and JST. Some snow
showers will linger at times at BFD and JST, as the upper
level trough moves across the region.

It will be windy until early this evening.

.Outlook...

Sat-Sun...Mainly VFR. MVFR with snow showers NW.

Mon...No sig wx.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 8.3 INCHES WAS SET AT HARRISBURG PA
YESTERDAY (Thursday). THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 3.0 INCHES
SET IN 1911.

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 8.2 INCHES WAS SET AT WILLIAMSPORT PA
YESTERDAY (Thursday). THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 2.5 INCHES
SET IN 1995.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...La Corte

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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