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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 221213
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
813 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An extensive wet pattern with frequent rounds of rain will
elevate the risk of flooding across parts of central
Pennsylvania this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain will end over northwest PA as the well defined hybrid low
that rotated northwestward across central PA weakens over the
eastern Great Lakes region. Expect a general lull in
precipitation through mid morning, with clouds giving way to
pockets of sunshine.

Additional showers/convection is expected to develop by late
morning or early afternoon. Precipitation is expected to be much
less organized today but may fall over areas that have received
3+ inches of rain in the past 12-18 hours. With soils saturated
in some areas, the locally heavy rain will have the potential to
produce isolated flooding/runoff issues. Unlike yesterday,
confidence in the QPF details is quite low. However, there
appears to be a +RA signal in the 06Z HREF mean/blend QPF that
would place a QPF max very close to where the highest amounts
were recently observed. This could result in an escalation of
the minor flooding that is ongoing early this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Humid weather pattern tonight as temperatures won`t fall to much
off the days highs. Will keep the chance of showers in the
forecast with several disturbances in the flow pivoting through
the area. Little change on Monday with more showers and a chance
of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By late Monday, upper trough will be filling off to our west.
Its position will remain nearly stationary or even retrograde a
little as strong broad ridge forms over the western U.S. For PA,
long fetch moist southerly low-level flow continues for much of
the week, with upper flow turning more SW/W. Not much to
inhibit daily convection, so the quite unsettled pattern will
continue as plenty of clouds abound.

Best daily chances for tstorms shifts to western/central
sections early in the week (as ridge briefly edges in from the
east) before precip shifts eastward Thu as a cold frontal
boundary finally pushes across the state. The weekend looks
drier.

Though it will be quite muggy, temperatures will be at or
slightly below below normal much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread MVFR to LIFR conditions at 12Z will trend toward VFR
through the afternoon, as low clouds give way to breaks of sun.
Expect a lull in precipitation through mid morning before
additional showers/convection develops by late morning through the
afternoon/evening. Shower activity will not be very organized
and therefore confidence in specific terminal impacts is low.
Extensive low clouds are likely tonight into Monday morning with
high confidence in MVFR to IFR ceilings between 00-12Z Mon.

.Outlook...

Mon-Thu...Frequent showers/isolated T`storms with associated
MVFR/IFR restrictions. TSRA most numerous in PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Ross/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Ross/RXR
AVIATION...Dangelo/Steinbugl

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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