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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 231529
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1029 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Milder air will overrun cold air at the surface bringing mixed
precipitation to central and northern Pennsylvania this morning
and afternoon. Plain rain will fall late today and today ahead
of a cold front to cross the region on Wednesday, followed by a
return to cold northwest flow which will last through this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sleet/light rain sliding north thru the Laurels into the central
mtns this morning. KUNV and KRVL (Reedsville/Mifflin Co) have a
dewpoint in the mid teens, still. There could be a thin coat of
sleet in AOO/UNV/IPT before it turns to (freezing) rain this
morning. The advy still looks well-placed and timed. Warren
county may be just above freezing, but road temp sensors still
indicate temps (well) below zero all along I-80 east of KDUJ and
on 219 near Kane/KBFD. Will see if we can`t trim some of it off
in a bit. But, the sfc and road temps and wet bulb effect will
keep the valleys of the N and central pretty cold thru the day.

Prev...
Onset timing of wintry mix across central and northern PA on
track this morning, with measurable precip having reached the
Northwest Mountains on time ~5 AM. Precip expected to reach
into the W Central Mountains between now and 830 AM and the
Central Mountains by mid to late morning. The southern extent
of measurable precipitation over the South Central Mountains and
northern portions of the Lower Susq. River Valley.Best chances
for a coating to a few hundreths of an inch of fzra are across
the C and NC Mountains, while the south will deal with warming
and initially dry boundary layer. By mid afternoon, most will
have warmed above freezing except for the deepest
northern/northeast valleys which may keep spotty fzra past 18z.
Broke out Winter Weather Advisories to adjust for this timing.

Highs will remain in the mid to upper 30s across the northeast
quarter of the area, while the remainder should range through
the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Attention turns to moderate rainfall event ahead of Thursday
morning FROPA, as PW axis (nearly +3 Sigma or 25 MM) slides
across the commonwealth tonight. Expecting moderate 12 hour totals
0.75 to 1.0 inch likely and 36 hour amounts of 0.75 to 1.25
inches, just below the threshold for flooding concerns. Areas
south and east of central PA may see minor flooding as totals
exceed 1.5" over this time frame. For us, cold front arrives
Wednesday morning to spell the end of moderate rain and nudge
the deeper layer moisture eastward, and also deliver another
surge of colder air supporting a changeover to snow and snow
showers before ending from west to east Wednesday afternoon.

The front will reach the northwest/west central mountains by
dawn, and cross the remainder of PA during the morning to
early/mid afternoon hours. Highs will range from the upper 20s
Northwest (morning high), where temperatures will be steady or
slowly falling during the day, to the mid to upper 30s central
and southeast, which will also slowly fall behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With cold air in place, an energized, but fast and progressive
flow pattern will dominate North America through the long term
period. Several shortwaves will bring chances for precipitation
to the region, though no significant phasing of systems appears
apparent at this point.

Focus for precip through midweek will be a trailing cold front
from initial Great Lakes low pressure, and then a strengthening
wave developing along the southern part of the front and
tracking northward up the Mid Atlantic/New England coast. There
is still uncertainty in strength/timing/track of the frontal
wave but currently there is potential for at least some wintry
weather to the north/west of the low track.

Another shot of arctic air should arrive by the end of the week
with some lake effect snow showers. The GFS is faster vs. ECMWF
with the next system into the weekend.

Perhaps the best chance of cyclogenesis this period is next
Monday into Tuesday when a wave is forecast to move through the
Great Lakes and lift into western New England. This would put PA
in the warm sector ahead of the system with chances of snow
showers on the back side.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected this morning at most central PA
terminals. Exception is KBFD with MVFR conditions with onset of
light freezing rain. Pushed back arrival time of precip based
on latest hires model guidance, with a period of freezing
rain/drizzle still likely across the northern 1/2 of the
airspace. Very cold ground surfaces may prolong icing risk
despite air temps climbing above freezing by early afternoon.
General trend will be to the downside into the evening with
MVFR/IFR conditions and periods of rain expected tonight. LLWS
40-55kt ending west to east 00-12Z Thu. Rain should end as a
period of snow as back edge of precip shifts eastward across the
airspace btwn 06-18Z Thu.

Outlook...

Thu...Cold fropa with rain changing to snow west to east.
Turning windy and colder Thu night with MVFR/IFR snow showers
western 1/3.

Fri...MVFR/VFR with scattered snow showers and gusty NW winds.

Sat-Sun...VFR/MVFR with snow showers psbl northwest.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ006-
012-037-041-042-045-046.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ004-005-010-011-017>019-024>028-049>053-056>058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir/Lambert
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Lambert
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Gartner
AVIATION...Steinbugl

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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