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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 241114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
714 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

An upper level trough will remain over the northeast conus this
weekend, then lift out early next week as ridging builds in from
the Great Lakes. A slow moving cold front will likely push
through the region during the second half of next week.


Early morning satellite imagery showing clear skies across
central Pa. Diurnal heating, combined with cold temps aloft,
will yield increasing cumulus by this afternoon, mainly over the
northeast part of the forecast area, closest to upper level
cold pool. A shortwave diving southeast across New England will
push a cold front southward across the region during late
afternoon and evening. Can`t rule out a few flurries accompanying
this feature across the mountains north and east of KIPT.
Otherwise, today will be a dry and chilly day for late March.

Mixing down model 850mb temps of around -6C yield expected high
temps from the mid 30s along the NY border, to the mid 40s over
the southeast counties.


A shot of very cold air for late March will overspread the
region in wake of cold front tonight on a northerly flow. Dry
air and low inversion heights will limit the moisture flux from
Lk Ontario, but still expect some stratocu to reach into the
mountains of northern Pa overnight. Elsewhere, expect a mainly
clear night. NBM/Superblend indicate lows ranging from the low
teens over the highest terrain of northern Pa, to the mid 20s
over the Lower Susq Valley.

Central Pa should be within a region of large scale subsidence
Sunday, west of potent shortwave diving southeast across New
England. Mainly sunny and chilly conditions expected for most of
the forecast area, although scattered afternoon cumulus are
expected over the eastern counties, closest to upper trough over
New England. The pool of coldest 850mb temps will be over
southern Pa Sunday afternoon, so expect the lowest temps
relative to normal over that part of the state. Model 850mb
temps support highs ranging from the mid 30s over the Laurel
Highlands, to the mid 40s across the Middle Susq Valley.


By early next week, all model guidance shows upper level
ridging building into the region, supporting a high confidence
forecast of fair weather and moderating temperatures. 00Z NAEFS
and ECENS support a chance of rain showers during the middle of
next week, especially over northwest Pa, associated with a dying
cold front working in from the Grt Lks. A better chance of rain
showers will likely come late in the week, as deepening trough
over the northern plains spawns a wave of low pressure on
stalled front over the Southern Mississippi Valley Thursday.
This low is currently progged to lift northward through western
Pa Friday, with trailing cold front crossing central Pa Friday

Surface ridge wedged east of the Appalachians and associated
cold air damming will slow the moderation in daytime temps next
week. However, do expect readings to recover to near normal
by late week, as low level cold air is scoured out ahead of
approaching cold front. ECME MOS indicating highs mainly in the
50s by Thursday and Friday.


No changes to the 12Z TAF package.

A dry northerly flow of air will prevail across central PA the
next few days.

A few clouds from time to time.


Sun-Tue...No sig wx expected, though a few periods of MVFR are
possible across the northern and western mtns of PA Sat night
into Sunday.

Wed...Thickening clouds with a likelihood of rain showers.
Widespread MVFR Cigs likely developing.




NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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