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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 261937
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
337 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity will continue to increase through the Memorial Day
holiday weekend. The humidity, along with a cold front dropping
southward, will keep ongoing chances for showers and thunderstorms
through Sunday night. Just isolated thunderstorms are possible
Monday into Tuesday, then the moisture from Subtropical Storm
Alberto will bring increasing chances for convection again from
midweek on.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Remaining mostly quiet across the CWA early this afternoon, but
afternoon heating beginning to kick off scattered pop-up
convection over the southern tier where temps are approaching
90F with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is where tstms will
become most numerous late this afternoon. Juicy PWATS will bring
potential for heavier downpours, and any training of echos
could lead to localized flooding problems (especially in urban
areas). Notably lesser chances over central and northern areas
where mixed layer is drier with surface dewpoints in the 50s.

A dying shortwave will move through the state overnight with
disorganized scattered showers and thunderstorms re-developing
from the west. Temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s overnight
will feel rather clammy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Sunday will bring a warm and more humid day to most, with a back
door cold front working in from the NE. This along with cyclonic
upper flow will be enough to again generate showers and sct
tstms that will expand in coverage with afternoon heating. PWATs
on the order of +1 to 3 sigma will make any tstms potential
heavier rain producers - especially over the SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure ridge over New England with low pressure off Long
Island and a backdoor cold front through Central PA. Good chance
for showers Sunday Night with the frontal zone. Frontal zone
retreats east Monday leading to a drier day over all than Sunday
but still a slight chance for some pop-up showers or
thunderstorms. Drier into Tuesday with a strong ridge aloft
ahead of the remnants of Alberto and a strong dry Canadian high
pressure center dropping SE across New England and NY by Tuesday
night into Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, this high moves
far enough off the coast that deep southerly flow moves into
Central PA with PWats increasing to over 2 standard deviations.
Sub-tropical moisture and the remnant of Alberto will move in
for the latter part of the week with unsettled warm and humid
weather and a risk for heavy rain with any thunderstorms that
occur.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions across the CWA early this afternoon will persist
in most places through this evening. But convection will develop
over mainly the southern tier that will bring scattered
restrictions in heavier downpours.

Convection tapers down early this evening, but shortwave sliding
in from the west will bring additional showers/sct tstms
overnight. As it interacts with a back door cold front dropping
down from the NE, cig restrictions will become likely toward
dawn.

On Sunday, cigs should recover back to VFR but lingering
intermittent restrictions will persist in disorganized yet
numerous showers/sct tstms. Ceilings lower Sunday night with
fairly widespread reductions.

Outlook...

Sun...Mainly VFR with numerous showers/sct thunderstorms.
Sun night...Widespread ceiling reductions.
Mon-Tue...VFR with isolated tstms poss.
Wed-Thu...Generally VFR with local reductions in scattered
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
It has been a wet May across much of the region.

As of Midnight, Williamsport rainfall for the month
has been 7.05 inches. This is the 6th wettest May on
record, and we still have a few days to add to the total.
The wettest May was 1919 with 9.91 inches of rainfall.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Watson/La Corte
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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