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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 210109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
909 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

A ridge of high pressure extending southwest from the St.
Lawrence River Valley will bring fair weather and light winds
through tonight. A cold front will push through the
Commonwealth late Friday afternoon and Friday night accompanied
by scattered showers and a few gusty thunderstorms. A new area
of high pressure is expected to move in for the weekend,
bringing notably cooler and less humid air.


Quiet weather this evening with no echoes on radar, a rarity
this summer! Night/fog sat difference images shows low clouds
expanding across the area, especially east. Warmed low temps up
a few degrees with more low level moisture in place. Another
warm and muggy night for the area. Some patchy drizzle or
pockets of light rain become possible late.


Mild and humid conditions (for late-September) are in store for
Friday ahead of a cold front that will approach from the Great
Lakes later in the day.

Showers and possibly a few strong to locally severe
thunderstorms will arrive late in the day across NW PA. This
activity should diminish as it continues southeastward into the
Central Mountains after sundown. The SREF is the mos generous
with its forecast of some moderate CAPE which it diminishes
rapidly after 21Z/5PM. It`s notable that the GEFS develops
almost no CAPE ahead of the front, possibly a signal that the
low clouds will rule the day and limit instability.

Because the clouds could be stubborn, especially over about the
eastern 1/2 - 2/3 of the CWA, highs should be about the same or
even a tick lower than today. The exception being over the far
west where it will likely break out for a time before the front
and showers begin to move in.


Extrapolation of the 12Z HREF mean combined with the NAM Nest
would suggest the most likely timing for a line of severe
storms with strong to potentially damaging wind gusts in the
00-03Z time frame across the northwest 1/3 of the CWA.

While the line of storms along the cold front will continue
to push southeastward after dark, the threat of severe weather
should decrease owing to very little instability and downsloping
east of the Alleghenies. Winds just off the surface will remain
strong, however, it is likely to be decoupled from the near-
surface layer, with only weak downdraft potential. Models show
frontal precip dissipating between 06-12Z Saturday over the
southeast 1/3 of the CWA.

Cooler, less humid air will arrive behind the front for the
upcoming weekend. The frontal boundary will stall just south of
the Mason-Dixon line, with light rain still possible over the
far southern tier counties/mainly to the south of the Turnpike.

There is a better model consensus that supports increasing
forecast confidence in a period of rain developing north to
south Monday night into Tuesday as the wavy frontal boundary
lifts back to the north. There is also growing confidence/certainty
in rainfall along a cold front crossing the Appalachians around

Temperatures will trend cooler over the weekend which may last
into Monday, as flow turns back to the east/southeast. Expect a
modest rebound heading into midweek ahead of the next cold front.


Most terminals are VFR as of 2PM, and this should continue into
the evening before low clouds begin to redevelop in the
southerly flow. Expect restrictions once again from late
evening into the post sunrise hours of Friday morning.

An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to western areas by later Friday afternoon. Some
of the storms could cause locally strong wind gusts and brief
restrictions with heavy rain.


Fri...Early morning cig reductions likely. SHRA/TSRA aftn/eve.
CFROPA late.

Sat...Morning fog poss. Otherwise no sig wx.

Sun-Mon...VFR after morning fog.

Tue...Sub VFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms.




NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Ross/La Corte
LONG TERM...Steinbugl

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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