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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 200259
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1059 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A dying cold front will pushing into northwestern PA will stall
out over the northern part of the state. A deepening low
pressure system will track across the state early Wednesday,
with cold and unsettled conditions on Thursday. Expect improving
conditions Friday into Saturday, with unsettled conditions
returning for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Front appears to have crossed LE and is perhaps into Warren Co.
Light rain in the NW is playing out as expected. Temps still
mild in places where the wind has not yet dropped off. But, have
high confidence in the min temps.

Prev...
The convection and spotty showers from earlier have all but
disappeared. The radar returns over NW PA/nrn OH seem to be
mainly aloft with even sprinkles in the obs tough to find
there. however, behind the cold front/wind shift (IAG-TOL at
23Z), obs with --RA can be found more readily. As this shearing
upper shortwave trough lifts east/north shortly, the precip that
does move into the area will likely lift out after midnight, as
well. QPF is just 0.01 for the far NW and hardly anything for
the rest of the nrn mtns. Cooler air will start to seep into
the northwest overnight, evidenced by mins dropping to the mid
to upper (and maybe mid) 30s Tuesday morning. South of the
front, lows will be in the lower to middle 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
On Tuesday, with the dying front draped across central PA,
broad upper level ridging builds over PA in response to upstream
deepening trough over the Mississippi Valley. Thus, Tuesday is
expected to be dry for most, if not all, of the forecast area.
Temperatures will be tricky given the strong baroclinicity from
north to south. a 50 mile drive can yield a difference of 30
degrees on Tuesday afternoon.

Stayed close to NBM positioning along with WFO neighbors on
location of front and resulting cloud cover. To the south of the
boundary, mostly sunny and warm conditions are expected,
especially over the southern third of central PA, where highs
could eclipse 70F. To the north of the front, mostly cloudy and
much cooler air can be expected with highs only in the 40s over
the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
This evening update to the long term centered heavily on the
Tues night-Wed time frame. Just fine tuned the timing on
PoPs/Wx/QPF, mostly. Otherwise, the big picture looks the same.
Have held onto some snow accums in the far NW during the
daylight hours on Wed. Blustery, then for a day and a half post-
fropa.

Prev...
A wave of low pressure will develop along the stalled out frontal
boundary and intensify as it approaches central PA Tue night into
Wed. A few light sprinkles are possible across the central and
eastern ridges and valleys of PA during the first half of Tue night,
but the bulk of the precip will hold off until after midnight Tue
night across the NW zones, and until after daybreak on Wed
across eastern zones.

Guidance continues to show a drier solution than what was progged a
few days ago. On average, rainfall totals are forecast to be less
than 0.10 inch across the Laurels and south central PA, with 0.10 to
0.40 inch of precip expected north of I-80. Rain will mix with and
change to wet snow across the northwest Tue night. Went with
snowfall totals averaging around 1 inch for Warren and McKean
counties, but there is still a notable lack of agreement in the
guidance with the NAM and NBM 10pctl showing amounts closer to 0
and the GFS and NMB 90pctl showing 4 inches of snow for the NW
zones. With marginal temps and limited precip, this does look
like a limited/minimal impact event.

The more notable thing on Wed will be the blustery conditions with
temps dropping over the west and even the central counties in the
late morning and aftn. After a lull in precip midday Wed, the NW
flow will bring in lake effect showers which will mix with snow
before nightfall in the west and turn to plain snow showers early
Wed evening. The lake effect and upslope snow could result in a
coating of accum across the north and Laurels, esp on the higher
elevations. Temps will continue to cool with mins in the mid 20s to
low 30s Wed PM. With another group of south central PA counties
scheduled to begin their growing season on Apr 21, we will have to
monitor low temps for freeze warning criteria Thu AM. It does look
like it will be too windy for frost formation.

Thursday will be another blustery day with gusts into the 30s
possible. While temps in the SE get back down to the 30s again
Thursday night, the wind will again likely keep up enough to
preclude a widespread frost for those areas already in the
growing season. Temps rebound quickly on Friday with fair wx.

The next chance for widespread rain will be Sat and Sun as the next
storm approaches. Guidance has trended toward a more amplified
pattern and wetter system, but there is still ample uncertainty
about exactly where the storm will track and how much rain will fall
in central PA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conds will continue early. A weak cold front
will pass through the area overnight. As the wind turns
northwesterly behind the front, shallow moisture near the
surface will move into BFD and JST, resulting in a period of
likely MVFR / possible IFR cigs between 06z and 16z Tue. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail farther east.

Outlook...

Tues...MVFR cigs possible at JST and BFD with VFR likely
elsewhere.

Tues night-Wed...Showers overspread the area, with restrictions
developing.

Thu and Fri...Northwesterly flow, with restrictions and spotty
rain or snow showers N/W PA.

Sat...Restrictions possible as rain approaches from the SW

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Colbert
AVIATION...Gartner/Colbert

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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