000
FXUS61 KCTP 261530
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1130 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, moist air over the region and a front lingering through
the day will keep showers and storms in the forecast for Central
PA through the evening. Slightly less humid air is expected on
Monday, as the cold front sags a little more to the south.
More showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday into
Thursday, as a complex frontal system moves across the Great
Lakes area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and thunderstorms entering the western zones. These
developed out ahead of the approaching and dying MCS. The
forcing/MCV associated with the old MCS is driving the bus right
now, and these storms will likely continue across the region,
mainly south of I-80 during the daylight hours. Gusts into the
u20s and 30s are possible over much of the west. A few stronger
cells could near severe wind gusts in the next couple of hours.
SWOMCD issued for poss svr wx watch. Additional forcing is
likely to arrive later this aftn and push an additional batch of
storms through the region. All these storms will have the
potential to become severe, and the southwestern corner of the
CWA is also likely to see multiple rounds of storms and heavy
rain. The repeated storms will lead to an elevated threat of
flash flooding, but confidence is too low for a watch at this
point due to poor model agreement on placement of best QPF from
the fine-scale convection. Heat is building and 80s already
widespread in the east where the sun came out for a few hours.
Clouds moving in may stifle warming much more, and some places
in the west may be really close to their maxes for the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The chance of showers and storms will decrease after sunset
this evening, especially across the north. Dewpoints are fcst
to drop across the north.

Further south, dewpoints will not change much.

Anyway, Memorial day still looks to be mainly dry. This has
been the trend lately. Thus enjoy the day. Been hard to get
many dry days this Spring.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some showers may try to work into the area by sunrise on
Tuesday, given the strong warm advection.

EC and other models hinting at a rather deep low by 12Z Tue.
Somewhat similar to last Thursday with the warm advection and
shear.

I did lower temperatures some on Tuesday, but not as low
as the MAV guidance. MAV numbers look to be too cool for
Tue.

A complex pattern with how cold fronts and the upper level
low come together later in the week, but there is enough
guidance to support to mention showers and storms in the
fcst.

Daily highs will mainly range from the mid 70s to mid 80s
through at least Thursday, with some cooling anticipated
thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fog gone and heat is on. Storms on the front edge of the dying
MCS are strong, and could make a gust into the 30s as they pass
through JST and AOO shortly. The storms should continue on to
the east through the aftn and likely flare up as they near
MDT/LNS where best instability will reside later today.

Prev...
IFR through the southeast and the northwest will continue for
the next few hours. latest satellite shows patchy dense fog
through the lower susquehanna that while shallow is affecting
MDT and LNS. This will slowly lift late this morning.

A cold front will move through Sunday morning, which will help
break any inversion and clear up any restrictions. The front
moving through the NW could spark showers and possibly a late
morning thunderstorm. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and the first half
of the evening through the Lower Susquehanna. With this front
will be a wind shift to the NW and an increase of winds to 10 to
15 mph with gusts upwards of 20 mph. Showers and thunderstorms
could linger through the first part of the overnight period.
Areas receiving rain could see another round of IFR cigs and
vsbys late Sunday night, early Monday morning.

Less chance of showers and storms on Memorial day.

Some chance of more showers and storms again after Monday.

.Outlook...

Mon-Tues AM...VFR.

Tues PM-Thurs...Mainly VFR, although spotty showers/storms are
expected each aftn/evening.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Martin
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Dangelo/Ceru