000
FXUS61 KCTP 010259
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1059 PM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and comfortable weather will hold through tonight. Increasing
clouds will usher in showers and a few thunderstorms for the
first day of August, with seasonable temperatures hanging around
through the upcoming work week. Daily afternoon pop-up
thunderstorms are expected for the second half of the week
ahead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Late evening updates are very minor. Newest NAM continues to
develop some deep(er) convection near DC and brings it up into
our far SErn counties around sunrise or slightly before -
weakening it while it does. New HREF also makes some precip, but
some members are more spotty with the QPF there. Sfc low
associated with this rain will move off the coast on Sunday,
but the speed with which the low moves away is not clear, even
at this point.

Prev...
Expect clear skies to hold for much of the night in the middle
and northern thirds of the area. However, clouds will increase
from the south (and near from the northwest, as well) during the
second half of the night. Return flow of moisture on light sw
winds and increasing humidity will keep mins from dropping as
low as Sat morning, with generally 50s expected throughout,
except lower 60s in the SE.

A mid/upper trough and sfc cold front are fcst to move through
the area on Sunday. SPC MRGL outlook for late in the day over
mainly north of I-80 as a cold front sags into PA Sunday
afternoon. The combination of weak instability and light
low-level winds indicate that the severe threat should be very
isolated. The SErn counties will likely see a period of showers
start up just before sunrise, and continue thru the day.
Instability will likely be limited there due to the clouds and
showers. However, with a few breaks in the clouds and the
forcing of the front/pooling of higher moisture, they, too could
have thunderstorms - but more likely during the morning than
aftn. There might be a stripe of counties from State College
southward which could remain largely dry, stuck in between the
forcing of the developing sfc low moving thru the Mid-Atlantic
early in the day and the cold front. Westerly wind pre-cold-
front is usually a negative for rainfall over the south-central
mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A few lingering showers around sunset in the east should move to
the east and dissipate quickly. NW wind kicks in and passage of
the upper trough from the Great Lakes will generate plenty of
stratus for the N and W. This will probably keep overnight
temps very similar to Sun AM, 50s and l60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The start of the week will be dry as high pressure builds into
the area. It will feel comfortable outside with highs in the 70s
to low 80s for most areas Monday and Tuesday along with low
humidity. The middle and end of the week may become more
unsettled with an upper trough over the eastern US and a
stationary front near the East Coast. The best chance of
showers and storms will remain closest to where the stationary
boundary sets up, which at this times appears to be our far
eastern and southeast counties mainly later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Nearly calm winds and VFR conditions expected through tonight.
Sunday morning, showers and MVFR cigs may develop at MDT and LNS
and continue through the rest of the day.

A cold front moving NW to SE Sunday afternoon will bring the
chance of SHRA and TSRA to all terminals, with the best chances
across north central PA (BFD/UNV/IPT).

Outlook...

Sun...SHRA/TSRA likely - some MVFR cigs.

Mon...no sig wx expected.

Tue...SHRA/TSRA possible SW.

Wed & Thurs...Afternoon SHRA/TSRA possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Through July 31st, the monthly precipitation at Harrisburg is
8.00 inches which currently ranks 2021 as the 9th wettest July
on record.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Travis/Wagner
AVIATION...Guseman/Wagner
CLIMATE...Banghoff