000
FXUS61 KCTP 040134
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
934 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers/storms will drop south of the area this evening as drier
and cooler air is pushed in on good northerly flow. Seasonably
cooler and drier air will follow in the wake of the front. The
cooler conditions will be here for much of next week.
Precipitation will be unlikely, too.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
With moderate CAPE present and bulk layer shear increasing from
the east this afternoon and evening, scattered convection
extended from the Middle Susq River Valley to the Central
Mountains and points south. Long lived cycling cells produced
numerous large hail reports with pennies to golf balls reported
in Dauphin and Snyder Counties, and pea to dime sized common in
several other storms. Harrisburg metro appears to have seen the
most concentrated hail reports, and some wind damage.

As of late this evening, most of thunder has dissipated and
moved south of the Mason Dixon line with scattered showers
exiting the southern tier in the next 2 hours.

Drier air is making its way south and aside from a rogue shower
over the Endless Mountains, the rest of tonight should be dry.
Some lower clouds will probably be trapped under the subsidence
inversion over the southern Alleghenies overnight. So, we`ve
included mentions of fog and higher clouds there. Clearing
across the north and dewpoint drop will help mins reach the u40s
in the nrn mtns, but the clouds in the SW will keep them in the
m50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low will wobble around New England, mainly offshore
for the period, driving 8H temps down. Dry air mixes down and
clears out the SW in the first half of the morning. The wind
will back some to the N for the aftn, and this will help drop
dewpoints even more. Even mixing up to 5-7kft and tons of
sunshine on Sunday we`ll struggle to get temps near 80F
anywhere. The SE cities will get into the m70s, but that`s not
much below normals (2-4F below) for early June.

Dry air and light wind will allow temps to drop into the 40s
everywhere Sun night, except perhaps the urban areas of the SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Medium range guidance shows a deepening upper trough over the
NE CONUS into next week, likely resulting in cooler than
average temperatures for early June. The trough axis along with
the bulk of rainfall looks likely to remain east of PA.
Relatively cool temps aloft coupled with occasional shortwaves
rotating southward across the area could support some showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon, but models suggest that very
little moisture will be in place and rainfall will be light.

The upper level low begins to move east of the area on Friday,
allowing for a gradual warming trend to begin and lower chances
for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some convection continues across south-central PA with JST
being the only terminal that retains VCTS as of 1Z, that will
likely drop in the next hour. The main aviation concern this
evening will be the development of valley fog, with lowered CIGs
across many of the terminals experiencing rain this afternoon.

JST/AOO are likely to experience restrictions down to IFR, with
HREF guidance outlining a ~50% chance of IFR CIGs at AOO by 03Z
and ~40% chance of the same threshold being met at JST by 04Z.
Elsewhere across the southern tier, MVFR conds appear likely at
MDT/UNV and are already present at LNS.

Any restrictions look to resolve soon after sunrise on Sunday,
with clearing skies and lowering winds across many terminals.

Outlook...

Sun...Restrictions early across southern tier. Conds improving
to VFR as the day progresses.

Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue-Thu...Rain showers with possible t-storms in the afternoon.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Bauco
AVIATION...NPB