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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA
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000 FXUS61 KCTP 210749 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 349 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A surge of summerlike heat and humidity (the hottest weather since last summer) will bring record challenging/breaking temperatures and scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to central PA this weekend. Conditions will dry out into early next week with noticeably cooler temperatures and more comfortable humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Very warm and muggy start to the weekend with locally dense fog in the central and eastern valleys. We are monitoring ASOS/RWIS observations and may issue a dense fog advisory soon as visby trends continue to deteriorate as high clouds peel off to the northeast. An anomalous upper level ridge building along the east coast will bring a surge of summerlike heat and humidity with record challenging/breaking high temperatures (see climate section of the AFD). Model 850mb temps around 18C should support max temps ranging form the upper 80s over the Alleghenies to the low and mid 90s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley (+10-20F above climo and warmer than yesterday). An examination of latest model soundings suggests deep mixing will result in afternoon dewpoints a few degrees below NBM guidance, especially over the central mountains. However, max heat indices peaking in the mid-upper 90s are still likely over parts of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. While max HX values peak just below 100F or advisory criteria, heat stress impacts are still expected given limited exposure/acclimation to the heat this early in the season. Poor air quality will also be a factor with a code orange air quality alert in effect for a portion of the lower Susquehanna Valley. Fog dissipates to mostly sunny skies before scattered cumulus develop during late morning and afternoon. Warm temps aloft associated with building ridge should largely suppress convection over the majority of CPA later this afternoon and evening. Hires models indicate a SW-NE oriented corridor of t-storms should fire within a seasonally moist 1-1.5" pwat plume extending from TX through the lower Great Lakes. Pre- frontal or lake-breeze convergence may also act as a triggering mechanism for convection which should approach/reach the far NW zones by 00Z/8PM. Heating of high-pwat air mass will yield significant CAPE by late in the day. However, deep layer shear looks fairly weak at |
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