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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 071750
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
150 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A relatively dry, but moderately strong cold front was bisecting
Pennsylvania from northeast to southwest this midday hour. The
front will move across the Susquehanna Valley during the mid
afternoon hours.

Below normal temperatures and dry conditions will follow for the
bulk of the region late today through the entire weekend with
some narrow bands of Lake Effect rain showers impacting the far
northwest portion of the state.

Following a rather wet start to October, a much drier pattern
is forecast with very little to no rain forecast through the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front located along a line from KBGM to KUNV and KJST at
1530Z, with an anafront structure and sparse, light precip about
30NM in the wake of the sfc boundary and above the shallow cold
air immediately in its wake.

Plenty of stratocu clouds in the wake of the cold front will
slowly advect SE, and provide a 6-8 hour period of BKN CIGs at
all locations by late this afternoon.

As the cold air deepens 75-100 NM in the wake of the sfc fropa,
(or about 4-6 hours after its passage) vertical mixing will help
to poke significant holes in the stratocu deck. The well aligned
boundary layer flow from about 320 deg up through 5 KF AGL will
create some narrow bands of Lake Effect/orographic rain showers
that drift into our NW zones and Laurel Highlands late today and
tonight. QPF will be minimal though as the clouds will be
shallow and relatively warm with the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ)
AOA 10 KFT AGL.

The upper trough supporting the aforementioned cold front seems
to sharpen a little late today and makes a small ripple of a
sfc low on the front which should be through all of the CWA by
then. So, there could be a passing SHRA over the lower Susq.
Perhaps this will all be virga, but HREF members incl the
NAMNest generate one or two hundreths of QPF there within an
hour or two of sunset.

The wind should pick up as they veer to the NW with gusts into
the upper teens/L20s.

Temps across the NW Mtns will be steady or slowly falling from
the u40s this afternoon, and will rise just a few more Deg F
across the Central Mtns and Mid Susq Valley.

The lower Susq will have a more-normal curve where highs will be
in the low-mid70s thanks to nearly cloud free skies and
downslope flow ahead of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface ridging and falling inversion heights are progged
tonight. However, the passage of a shortwave and sub-zero air
at 850mb crossing Lake Erie should support scattered rain
showers over the northwest mountains, with even a few wet
snowflakes possible over the highest elevations overnight. Low
temps will near 32F at BFD, but some wind and the low clouds
will keep worries for frost nil. Lots of mid 30s in the
Alleghenies and NErn mtns, and 40-45F elsewhere. Kept on with
adjustments to PoP and QPF given NBM`s known dry bias in these
types of patterns.

Mixing Sat aftn should get to 8H in most places, but still only
yield temps fairly cool for the season (10-15F below normals in
most places). A NW wind will add a Fall chill, making it feel
even a few degrees cooler. Fcst lows Saturday night are in the
30s everywhere except right along the lower Susq R. An active
breeze (4-8KT in general) should preclude frost formation and
freezing temps in most areas, but patchy frost is possible if
the wind goes calm.

Surface high pressure will maintain dry and cool weather for
the second half of this weekend. Sunday maxes look 3-5F milder,
but still a few degrees below normals for mid-Oct.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All medium range guidance tracks a shortwave and associated
dying cold front into the area Monday, but the lack of moisture
and weak forcing indicate this feature will likely come through
dry.

Rising heights and the presence of a large surface high along
the east coast should ensure fair weather through the first half
of next week with temperatures returning to near seasonable
levels. ECENS and GEFS plumes indicate the next chance of rain
showers will come Wed night into Thu in association with a
frontal system front pressing in from the Grt Lks. Cooler air
will move in behind the front for Fri-Sat, along with the chance
for lake effect rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front, with limited moisture, will cross through
central PA during the day today. It will likely bring a period
of MVFR cigs to at least western and northern airfields, along
with the chance of a few light showers. Behind the front, NW
winds will gust up to 20 kts.

Outlook...

Sat...MVFR cigs with ocnl -shra NW. Otherwise, low VFR cigs.

Sun and Mon...Mainly VFR expected. Gusty W wind.

Tue...VFR and less windy

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBFD obs will be missing wind for around a week (thru at least
Oct 9) while maintenance/upgrades are being performed on the
ASOS. A similar interruption will occur at many other terminals
across Central PA over the next few weeks.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner/Travis
EQUIPMENT...

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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