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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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644
FXUS61 KCTP 180019
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
819 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Long duration and potentially dangerous heat wave this week
*Near-record high temperatures 90+ degrees into the weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8 pm update... Broken convective band has intensified a bit in
the last 30 minutes or so, as activity encounters a synoptic
stationary front (convergent dew point boundary) over central
PA, plus localized outflow, within a sufficiently unstable
environment. The threat for locally severe wind gusts/hail
should be with us until 8:30-9 pm.

Thereafter, we still anticipate a weakening trend, as the
environment stabilizes diurnally, and also becomes generally
less favorable into eastern PA with a drier column in place.

6 pm update... A broken band of showers and thunderstorms, tied
to an upper-level disturbance over Lake Ontario, extends from
western and central NY, through western and north-central PA,
then back into OH at 6 pm. An isolated strong or perhaps
marginally severe storm could still impact areas north of I-80
and about as far east as the I-99 corridor through 8 pm or so.
Thereafter, waning instability and the development of weak
subsidence behind the aforementioned disturbance should cause
any residual storms to weaken and dissipate.

We still anticipate some patchy fog later tonight, owing to
increasing surface dew points, locally wet ground conditions,
and light surface flow.

Lows by daybreak should generally range from 65 to 70.

Previous discussion... Still anticipate a gradual uptick in
[isolated] convection over the NW Alleghenies this afternoon on
the southern periphery of remnant MCV moving eastward across
southern Ontario. SPC has maintained the MRGL risk SWO and
recently sent MCD #1302 which included a portion of Warren
County. The limited vertical shear generally =90 in June:

State College 6 (24-29th 1966)
Harrisburg 10* (19-28th 1943)
Williamsport 9 (18-26th 1923)
Altoona 8 (13-20th 1994)
Bradford 0 (has not occurred in POR since 1957)

*Harrisburg had a run of 11 days that started on 26th and ended
 on July 6th in 1901

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Guseman/Bauco
AVIATION...Guseman/NPB
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/NPB

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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