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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 231537

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1137 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Look for dry weather with sunny days and clear cool nights this
weekend. Temperatures this afternoon will be on the cool side
but will moderate significantly on Sunday. Winds will be gusty
during the days. Aside from light precipitation potential on
Monday, a prolonged period of dry weather appears likely to last
until next weekend.


Forecast on track, looking like some nice weekend weather today,
albeit on the cool side. Gusty winds on the backside of deep
storm over the Bay of Fundy will subside into tonight as the
storm moves north into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Lake Huron band
will likely keep clouds around longer over the Laurel
Highlands. Despite clouds breaking for late- March sun, max
temperatures will be -5 to -15 degrees below average and only
reach the mid 30s-40s. Factor in the wind, and it will feel like
mid 20s-30s. Mainly clear tonight with min temps much closer to
climo values.


A nice rebound in temperatures on Sunday with highs +10-15
degrees warmer than Saturday. Clouds will increase into Sunday
night with the next frontal system possibly bringing some light
precipitation to the area by Monday morning. Model QPF trends
shifted light amounts to the south, focusing over the southern
1/2 to 1/3 of central PA Monday during the day. This would favor
a lower risk for rain/snow on the northern edge of pcpn in
northern PA, where temperatures will be marginally cold enough
to support mix. Precip shifts to the south with dry wx likely
Monday night.


We are pretty confident in a prolonged period of dry wx this
period, as large area of high pressure dominates the regional
pattern. We are also bullish on a warming trend toward above
average temperatures starting around midweek, but will need to
watch for potential cool-air damming. NBM does a decent job in
mitigating timing differences with pcpn associated with frontal
system around the end of the month.


VFR conditions this weekend, though gusty NW winds during the
afternoon hours.

An intense low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes will
maintain gusty northwest winds across central Pa through today.
Bufkit soundings support frequent gusts in the 25-30kt range
through early this evening. High pressure will build into the
region this evening, causing winds to diminish.


Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...AM rain/low cigs possible, mainly N and W Mtns.

Tue-Wed...No sig wx expected.


Gusty northwest winds 20+ mph and minimum RHs below 30% are
expected this afternoon. Low RH is also forecast on Sunday, but
with lighter winds. Fine fuel moisture (per coordination with
fire wx partners) will remain above 10% through the weekend,
and therefore no fire wx headlines are expected at this time.




SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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